Tax Revenue Performance and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Authors: Oliver Morrissey, Christian von Haldenwang, Armin von Schiller, Maksym Ivanyna & Ingo Bordon
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Date: May 2016


The Journal of Development Studies 50 issue 12

This paper addresses vulnerability of revenue to external shocks using export composition to capture economic structure and differentiating countries according to income levels, resource endowments and political regimes. This gives a richer characterisation than previous studies. Lower income countries are vulnerable to shocks, especially in terms of trade (associated with the greatest revenue loss): democratic regimes seem to be less vulnerable to revenue losses due to shocks than non-democracies whereas revenue in resource rich countries is more vulnerable to shocks (except natural disasters) than non-resource rich countries. We find a negative relationship between manufacturing exports and revenue in lower income countries.