MTI Practice Notes 9K

This note uses administrative tax data for formal firms to measure the direct impact of lockdown restrictions on firms’ profitability, employment, and exit rates. The authors separate the economy into three categories, according to the size of the shock experienced, and consider two lockdown scenarios: one lasting three months and one lasting five months. These scenarios are clearly stylized and they do not necessarily reflect the reality of any country. They are, however, not too distant from the South African reality, where an initial strict lockdown was imposed for two months, followed by several months of easing restrictions and reduced economic activity. The authors estimate losses to corporate income tax (CIT) revenue, increases in firms’ debt levels, cuts in employment and their mitigation through wage subsidies, and aggregate output losses from firms’ exit.


Adrienne Lees

Adrienne Lees is a Doctoral Fellow at ICTD, working primarily on projects relating to tax administration and compliance, and on the DIGITAX programme. She has completed an ODI Fellowship in the Tax Policy Department at the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Uganda. Adrienne holds an MSc in Economics for Development from the University of Oxford and is completing her PhD in Economics at the University of Sussex.

Giulia Mascagni

Giulia Mascagni is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Development Studies and Research Director of the ICTD. Her main area of work is taxation, but she also has research interest in public finance, evaluation of public policy, and aid effectiveness. She is an economist by training, holding a PhD in Economics from the University of Sussex. Her main geographical interest lies in African countries, with a particular focus on Ethiopia and Rwanda.

Michael Kilumelume

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